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This is a bibliography of articles that have been found useful in assessment. The list is not meant to be comprehensive, but rather instructive.
The bibliography will always be a work "in progress". We start with a selection of articles on play assessment. New sets of articles will be added continuously. Please let us know (bibliography@geoknowledge.com) if we are missing your favorite article.
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Baker, R.A., H.M. Gehman, W.R.James and D.A. White (1984) "Geologic Field Number and Size of Oil and Gas Plays", AAPG Bulletin, 69(4), 426-437
Classic paper that presents the basics of the feature-based approach to estimating undiscovered oil and gas potential in a single play. All four authors are key in the development of the Exxon play assessment methodology that GeoKnowledge espouses and GeoX delivers. W.R. (Bill) James is the key architect of both the Prosper tool that is a key predecessor of the GeoX gProspectR tool and the gPlay tool that was influential in the design of the GeoX gPlayR tool. The paper includes the notion of postulated and counted (mapped) prospects (potential accumulations), the distinction between shared play risks and the prospect specific future success ratio. Barrett, A.G., Hinde, A.L. & Kennard, J.M., 2004, "Undiscovered resource assessment methodologies and application to the Bonaparte Basin" in Ellis, G.K., Baillie, P.W. & Munson, T.J. (Editors), Timor Sea Petroleum Geoscience: Proceedings of the Timor Sea Symposium, Darwin, Northern Territory, 2003. Northern Territory Geological Survey, Special Publication 1.
Presents the discovery processs model (AUSTPLAY) used by Geoscience Australia to estimate undisovered resource potential. The paper gives an application to the estimation of undiscovered resources in seven plays in the Bonaparte basin. One of the interesting aspects of the Geoscience Australia methodology is a discovery process model that extrapolates closure area and volume/closure area (as opposed to field sizes). The estimates are based on a finite time horizon (medium term) with a prediction of wildcat drilling intensity. The explicit time sequence of wildcats is needed to produce an estimate of production forecasts, the primary use of the model. GeoX currently does not support discovery process modelling of undiscovered resources in a play. Davis, J.C. and T. Chang (1989) "Estimating Potential for Small Fields in Mature Petroleum Province", AAPG Bulletin, 73(8), 967-975.
One of many papers on the lower end of the size distribution of fields. Reviews the distinction between Pareto (J-shaped) and Lognormal field size distribution. The paper is therefore a useful reference to the small field fraction extrapolation in the GeoX gPlayR tool. The paper reports that their data does not resolve the issue concerning small fields (cf. alternative estimation methods in the GeoX gPlayR tool). Note that Davis and Chang are looking at mature petroleum provinces. Small field fraction can also be used in relatively frontier plays where data resolution is limited. Fugelli, M.G. and T.R.Olsen (2005) "Risk assessment and play fairway analysis in frontier basins: Part 2 -- Examples from offshore mid-Norway", Bulletin of the AAPG, 89(7), 883-896.
A recent example of BP play fairway analysis used at the basin level. Reports on the risk assessment of seven plays in the frontier Møre and Vøring basins. Develops interaction between data quality and (play) model confidence with interesting translation into definition of critical risk reduction activities. Focus is on plays with little attention to common risk segments and traffic light characterization -- consistent with frontier plays and limited data. Grant, S. N. Milton and M. Thompson (1996) "Play Fairway analysis and risk mapping: an example using the Middle Jurassic Brent Group in the northern North Sea" in A.G. Doré and R. Sinding-Larsen (eds), Quantification and Prediction of Petroleum Resources. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
Apparently the first published paper on the BP single play fairway analysis approach. Focus is on defining the play fairway summary map with the composite common risk segment map. Composite common risk segment is equivalent to what in GeoX is defined as a part-play. Study reported uses the BP traffic light approach where risks are characterized at three levels (green-yellow-red). There is no attempt to estimate the undiscovered resource potential. The use is primarily to focus exploration efforts and to determine areas with identical shared play risks.
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