This three-day course is on the methods required for assessment of the risks and uncertainties within a contemporary prospect evaluation. Participants will learn the principles that should be applied when assessing both simple and complex prospects and prepare them to assess the risks and resources of a contemporary prospect. Exercises will illustrate the analytical methods used to assess the risks and uncertainties of an exploration prospect.
Modern prospect interpretation has not eliminated risk and uncertainty. But the description of risk and uncertainty has become more complex. The prospect may include:
- Multiple reservoirs
- Risks and uncertainties applied to individual reservoir segments
- Complex risk and volume relationships between reservoirs
- Uncertainty of fluid communication between reservoirs
- Unusual, non-traditional, reservoir geometry
- Alternative interpretations (scenarios)
The course combines lectures, discussion and numerous exercises. Exercises are designed to promote understanding and mastering of the fundamentals of methodologies and analytics. The exercises therefore involve simple calculations using hand-calculators and manual simulators.
Day 1:
Philosophy of prospect assessment, prospects within plays and portfolios, basic volumetrics, uncertainty and risking, introduction to Monte Carlo simulation, prospect segmentation concepts.
Day 2:
Aggregating multiple-segment prospects, complex risk and volume relationships, interpreting prospect results, alternative scenarios, advanced risking using Bayesian updating.
Day 3:
Integrative prospect assessment exercise. Introduction to play analysis, economic evaluation, portfolio evaluation, and learning systems.
Prerequisites: Background in exploration geosciences and prospect evaluation.
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