GeoKnowledge - Requisite Modeling for Prospect Risk and Prospectivity Assessment

(Sept 17, 2003) GeoKnowledge Managing director Charles Stabell will present at he Tuesday morning Oral session 'Decision and Risk Analysis in the Petroleum Industry' (click for full session program).

The presentation is titled 'Requisite Modeling for Prospect Risk and Prospectivity Assessment? Not too Simple and not too Complex'.

Presentation Abstract
There is a growing controversy in corporate management of exploration ventures over to what extent assessment of prospect risk and resources should rely on a single, common assessment model or that assessment should be problem related, where the models used are adjusted to reflect the complexity of the decision situation. The advantages of the simple common model approach are well known: It increases the likelihood that all explorationists can and will do a systematic quantitative assessment of risks and resources; it assures that modeling does not become an end in itself, but rather a means to guide decisions; and it makes assessments relatively transparent in management reviews. The disadvantages are less well documented. This paper reviews a set of realistic and frequently encountered situations that involve multiple compartment/zone prospects with communication between compartments, correlated reservoir propertie,s and shared risks. The examples illustrate the potential biases and errors that might occur with too simple models. We conclude that modeling should aim for the requisite complexity. Effective and quality assured application suggests that there is need for improved stochastic model representation and results presentation.

For more information, please contact GeoKnowledge CEO Charles Stabell or business developer Pili Drangert-Hveding on +47 2294 1120 or sales@geoknowledge.com.


AAPG Barcelona Presentation (Sept 17, 2003) GeoKnowledge Managing director Charles Stabell will present at he Tuesday morning Oral session 'Decision and Risk Analysis in the Petroleum Industry' (click for full session program). The presentation is titled 'Requisite Modeling for Prospect Risk and Prospectivity Assessment? Not too Simple and not too Complex'. Presentation Abstract There is a growing controversy in corporate management of exploration ventures over to what extent assessment of prospect risk and resources should rely on a single, common assessment model or that assessment should be problem related, where the models used are adjusted to reflect the complexity of the decision situation. The advantages of the simple common model approach are well known: It increases the likelihood that all explorationists can and will do a systematic quantitative assessment of risks and resources; it assures that modeling does not become an end in itself, but rather a means to guide decisions; and it makes assessments relatively transparent in management reviews. The disadvantages are less well documented. This paper reviews a set of realistic and frequently encountered situations that involve multiple compartment/zone prospects with communication between compartments, correlated reservoir propertie,s and shared risks. The examples illustrate the potential biases and errors that might occur with too simple models. We conclude that modeling should aim for the requisite complexity. Effective and quality assured application suggests that there is need for improved stochastic model representation and results presentation. For more information, please contact GeoKnowledge CEO Charles Stabell or business developer Pili Drangert-Hveding on +47 2294 1120 or sales@geoknowledge.com.

GeoKnowledge(www.geoknowledge.com) is a vendor of leading-edge decision support solutions for the upstream oil & gas industry. Established in 1985, our objective is to assist petroleum companies, governments and industry suppliers worldwide in evaluating risks, resources and economic value in exploration and development projects. Our evolving family of GeoX exploration workbench products use object-oriented technology, relational databases, client/server solutions and knowledge-based technology. A common design principle has been a commitment to the use of industry-standard technological building blocks. Through continuous investment in new product development and active partnerships we both leverage industry expertise and support the deployment of complete decision support solutions.

AAPG Barcelona Presentation